Structural variation and forecasting of medical costs of public hospitals in China

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the levels of structural variation and forecasting of medical costs in public hospitals in China between 2010 and 2020. Methods: We analyzed the changes in average per-outpatient visit cost and average per-treatment cost of public hospitals at each level in China using the degree of structural variation, and forecasted the medical costs of public hospitals from 2021 to 2025 using a GM(1,1) model. Results: Between 2010 and 2020, the rate of contribution of medication costs was the highest at public hospitals of all levels, and the rate of contribution of other costs in public hospitals of all levels exhibited an upward fluctuation. Conclusion: Medical costs in Chinese public hospitals have been controlled effectively, but there is still much room for reducing the proportion of outpatient costs attributed to medication. In addition, controlling the cost of consumables should be prioritized to break the current pattern of medical service price shifting caused by regulating the proportion of individual costs, and to optimize the revenue structure of hospitals. Different levels of hospitals have different changes in cost structures, and promoting coordinated development of hospitals of all levels is necessary.